Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260811 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 22.9 25.8 33.5 36.7 31.0 32.2 66.4 F N N U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 103.0 115.0 124.0 131.0 143.0 144.0 129.0 112.0 F F F VF VF VF VF F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 2.0 -15.0 -23.0 2.0 13.0 35.0 78.0 U U U VU U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 62.0 65.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 9.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 4.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 5.0% 3.2% 25kt / 24h 11.3% 30.0% 20.7% 30kt / 24h 4.9% 15.9% 10.4% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 13.8% 8.1% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 9.9% 5.1% 45kt / 36h 7.7% 31.7% 19.7% 55kt / 36h 5.4% 13.8% 9.6% 55kt / 48h 43.1% 16.2% 29.6% 70kt / 48h 24.0% 10.4% 17.2% 65kt / 72h 48.9% 21.1% 35.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 WP132026 260811 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 22.9 25.8 33.5 36.7 31.0 32.2 66.4 N N N F F N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 62.0 65.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 9.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 4.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%