Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.7  22.4  27.2  28.8  33.5  33.5  33.5  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 111.0 109.0 109.0 109.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -4.0 -31.0 -20.0  16.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       23.4%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       11.2%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        8.9%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        8.0%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       25.7%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%       10.6%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       45.9%       12.7%       29.3%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%        7.4%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h       57.1%       21.0%       39.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP132026 260811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.7  22.4  27.2  28.8  33.5  33.5  33.5  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%