Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260811 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 160.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 28.2 43.0 40.2 42.5 48.1 50.7 64.8 N N VU U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 119.0 127.0 134.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 111.0 113.0 F F VF VF VF VF F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -28.0 -6.0 2.0 -3.0 86.0 93.0 108.0 U VU U U U F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 54.0 55.0 53.0 59.0 65.0 67.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -3.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 23.0 30.0 30.0 N N U U N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 2.1% 7.3% 4.7% 30kt / 24h 1.1% 2.2% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 2.2% 6.3% 4.3% 55kt / 36h 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 31.0% 2.3% 16.7% 70kt / 48h 12.9% 1.0% 6.9% 65kt / 72h 43.4% 2.9% 23.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP132026 260811 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 160.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 28.2 43.0 40.2 42.5 48.1 50.7 64.8 N N VF F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 54.0 55.0 53.0 59.0 65.0 67.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -3.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 23.0 30.0 30.0 N N F F N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%