Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260812 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.40 162.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 30.9 31.2 32.8 34.2 38.2 55.6 84.2 N U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 135.0 140.0 142.0 142.0 138.0 112.0 110.0 110.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 0.0 -2.0 22.0 26.0 63.0 56.0 73.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 62.0 68.0 78.0 69.0 U U U U N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 -5.0 -4.0 -5.0 8.0 11.0 95.0 N N F F F U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 10.7% 7.2% 30kt / 24h 1.6% 3.9% 2.7% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 2.7% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 4.3% 10.6% 7.5% 55kt / 36h 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 43.5% 5.9% 24.7% 70kt / 48h 23.8% 2.8% 13.3% 65kt / 72h 36.9% 3.2% 20.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.26 WP132026 260812 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.40 162.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 30.9 31.2 32.8 34.2 38.2 55.6 84.2 N N N F F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 62.0 68.0 78.0 69.0 F F F F N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 -5.0 -4.0 -5.0 8.0 11.0 95.0 N N U U U F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%