Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10    162.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  35.2  37.6  38.5  44.0  46.6  52.0  74.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  139.0 142.0 142.0 139.0 139.0 119.0 106.0 110.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  -3.0 -11.0  -5.0  34.0  17.0  37.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0 -10.0 -16.0 -19.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        5.2%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        4.1%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       24.8%        1.4%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        9.2%        0.7%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h       26.4%        2.5%       14.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP132026 260812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10    162.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  35.2  37.6  38.5  44.0  46.6  52.0  74.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0 -10.0 -16.0 -19.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%