Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260812 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.30 163.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.80 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 35.0 33.7 41.8 35.6 42.0 66.9 79.1 U U U VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 142.0 142.0 139.0 138.0 127.0 108.0 113.0 128.0 VF VF VF VF F F F VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 34.0 2.0 32.0 37.0 6.0 78.0 79.0 U N U N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 55.0 54.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 0.0 8.0 -7.0 -14.0 -43.0 15.0 N N N U F VF VF U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 2.2% 6.1% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 3.7% 6.2% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 40.0% 2.2% 21.1% 70kt / 48h 19.3% 1.0% 10.2% 65kt / 72h 38.3% 2.6% 20.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 WP132026 260812 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.30 163.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 35.0 33.7 41.8 35.6 42.0 66.9 79.1 F F F VF F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 55.0 54.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 0.0 8.0 -7.0 -14.0 -43.0 15.0 N N N F U VU VU F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%