Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260813 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 166.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.6 38.2 30.1 49.0 53.4 70.0 70.0 70.0 U U N VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 174.0 178.0 176.0 172.0 166.0 153.0 153.0 153.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 32.0 46.0 91.0 88.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 U N N F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 63.0 66.0 72.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 -16.0 -14.0 -33.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N VF VF VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 5.9% 9.3% 7.6% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 3.9% 5.6% 4.7% 55kt / 36h 2.1% 0.9% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 40.0% 1.1% 20.5% 70kt / 48h 18.4% 0.6% 9.5% 65kt / 72h 54.4% 2.6% 28.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 WP132026 260813 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 166.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.6 38.2 30.1 49.0 53.4 70.0 70.0 70.0 F F N VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 63.0 66.0 72.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 -16.0 -14.0 -33.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N VU VU VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%