Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260813 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 168.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 40.3 37.6 50.5 64.7 81.9 89.2 89.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 175.0 179.0 176.0 173.0 167.0 154.0 135.0 135.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 35.0 87.0 67.0 94.0 49.0 23.0 23.0 N N F N F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 67.0 70.0 76.0 67.0 61.0 61.0 N N N N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 -8.0 -76.0 -50.0 -50.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 5.7% 4.7% 30kt / 24h 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 22.1% 0.4% 11.3% 70kt / 48h 7.1% 0.2% 3.6% 65kt / 72h 13.7% 0.6% 7.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP132026 260813 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 168.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 40.3 37.6 50.5 64.7 81.9 89.2 89.2 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 67.0 70.0 76.0 67.0 61.0 61.0 N N N N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 -8.0 -76.0 -50.0 -50.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%