Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260814 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 176.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 154.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 62.9 70.8 79.9 82.2 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 106.0 117.0 118.0 120.0 163.0 163.0 163.0 163.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 71.0 70.0 49.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 60.0 54.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 68.0 64.0 34.0 59.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 WP132026 260814 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 176.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 154.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 62.9 70.8 79.9 82.2 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 60.0 54.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 N N F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 68.0 64.0 34.0 59.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.5% 7.2% 53.4%