Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    160.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.2  23.7  22.1  10.4  13.0  22.6  27.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  84.0  78.0  57.0  55.0  75.0  89.0  88.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  34.0  17.0  13.0   4.0  22.0  46.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   5.0  10.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       12.1%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        4.7%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.2%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        4.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       10.8%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        3.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       31.5%       10.5%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h       14.3%        3.2%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h       44.3%       11.3%       27.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP142026 260807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    160.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.2  23.7  22.1  10.4  13.0  22.6  27.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   5.0  10.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%