Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    160.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  27.0  25.8  19.8  12.0  20.1  23.2  31.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  82.0  68.0  45.0  62.0  65.0  89.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  17.0  13.0  35.0  24.0  10.0  28.0  21.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0  10.0  14.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.4%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        6.9%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        1.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h       21.2%        6.3%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        1.7%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       39.6%        7.4%       23.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP142026 260807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    160.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  27.0  25.8  19.8  12.0  20.1  23.2  31.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0  10.0  14.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%