Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    159.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  26.7  21.1  11.4   9.3  17.0  23.6  25.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  75.0  48.0  46.0  15.0  66.0  88.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   9.0  45.0  18.0  13.0  11.0  51.0  30.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  10.0   8.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        9.0%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h       23.7%        8.6%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        9.7%        2.9%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       54.1%       15.0%       34.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP142026 260807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    159.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  26.7  21.1  11.4   9.3  17.0  23.6  25.8  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  38.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  10.0   8.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%