Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  10.1   8.7  12.9  21.7  27.7  38.4  25.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  55.0  60.0  14.0  66.0  83.0  82.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   6.0   4.0  13.0  20.0  32.0  42.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  49.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        6.5%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       39.7%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       23.9%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       23.9%       14.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       23.9%       12.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.1%       44.6%       30.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.3%       23.6%       17.9%
 55kt / 48h       40.6%       24.9%       32.7%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       15.7%       19.0%
 65kt / 72h       36.7%       22.5%       29.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 WP142026 260808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  10.1   8.7  12.9  21.7  27.7  38.4  25.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  49.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%