Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4   9.4   8.8  15.7  22.1  24.5  29.4  23.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  60.0  33.0  20.0  73.0  84.0  80.0 110.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -1.0   6.0  25.0  60.0  12.0  22.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  52.0  43.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  18.0  27.0 -12.0  U  N  N  N  N VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        6.2%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%       36.5%       24.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       21.3%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       21.3%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       21.3%       11.2%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       39.5%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        9.0%       19.5%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       36.5%       23.1%       29.8%
 70kt / 48h       19.2%       13.6%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h       41.1%       26.8%       34.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.88

 WP142026 260808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4   9.4   8.8  15.7  22.1  24.5  29.4  23.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  52.0  43.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  18.0  27.0 -12.0  F  N  N  N  N VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%