Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260808 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 153.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.8 11.9 22.1 20.1 20.3 28.7 28.0 30.1 F F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 14.0 26.0 74.0 82.0 83.0 46.0 104.0 N U U N N N N F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 63.0 19.0 38.0 49.0 48.0 22.0 -18.0 U N U N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 53.0 55.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 47.0 37.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 5.0 24.0 32.0 6.0 N N N N N VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.4% 7.7% 6.1% 25kt / 24h 12.4% 32.6% 22.5% 30kt / 24h 9.2% 18.7% 14.0% 35kt / 24h 5.8% 18.7% 12.3% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 18.7% 10.1% 45kt / 36h 14.8% 32.4% 23.6% 55kt / 36h 9.5% 13.6% 11.6% 55kt / 48h 35.3% 17.6% 26.4% 70kt / 48h 17.7% 8.4% 13.0% 65kt / 72h 36.2% 14.7% 25.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.92 WP142026 260808 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 153.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.8 11.9 22.1 20.1 20.3 28.7 28.0 30.1 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 53.0 55.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 47.0 37.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 5.0 24.0 32.0 6.0 N N N N N VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%