Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260808 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 151.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 24.3 22.7 21.1 26.8 29.3 26.4 29.4 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 75.0 68.0 63.0 85.0 80.0 110.0 16.0 U N N N N N F U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 19.0 37.0 53.0 29.0 2.0 -24.0 -30.0 N U N N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 56.0 59.0 55.0 50.0 41.0 36.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 28.0 5.0 -4.0 N N N N U VU N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 5.0% 15.8% 10.4% 30kt / 24h 3.4% 6.3% 4.9% 35kt / 24h 1.7% 6.3% 4.0% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 6.3% 3.4% 45kt / 36h 7.6% 12.5% 10.1% 55kt / 36h 4.0% 3.3% 3.6% 55kt / 48h 24.4% 7.3% 15.9% 70kt / 48h 9.7% 2.4% 6.0% 65kt / 72h 29.6% 6.5% 18.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 WP142026 260808 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 151.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 24.3 22.7 21.1 26.8 29.3 26.4 29.4 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 56.0 59.0 55.0 50.0 41.0 36.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 28.0 5.0 -4.0 N N N N F VF N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%