Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260809 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.40 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 22.6 22.3 24.2 30.7 28.5 13.0 16.5 F N N N U N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 70.0 66.0 81.0 80.0 57.0 103.0 31.0 N N N N N N F U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 33.0 17.0 21.0 36.0 -5.0 -5.0 -38.0 U N U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 41.0 40.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 15.0 5.0 3.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.6% 5.1% 5.4% 25kt / 24h 10.5% 22.8% 16.7% 30kt / 24h 9.1% 10.4% 9.7% 35kt / 24h 4.1% 10.4% 7.3% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 10.4% 6.5% 45kt / 36h 11.4% 15.2% 13.3% 55kt / 36h 6.8% 4.1% 5.4% 55kt / 48h 26.2% 7.4% 16.8% 70kt / 48h 10.7% 2.7% 6.7% 65kt / 72h 27.9% 10.0% 18.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP142026 260809 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 22.6 22.3 24.2 30.7 28.5 13.0 16.5 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 41.0 40.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 15.0 5.0 3.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%