Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260809 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 150.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 25.4 24.3 29.6 27.6 30.7 31.4 47.6 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 80.0 82.0 80.0 64.0 107.0 31.0 1.0 N N N N N F U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 4.0 9.0 24.0 2.0 44.0 -71.0 -59.0 N U U U U N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 52.0 51.0 46.0 38.0 36.0 36.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 22.0 10.0 12.0 -2.0 N N N U VU U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.5% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.9% 3.3% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 12.2% 2.3% 7.3% 70kt / 48h 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 7.0% 1.3% 4.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 WP142026 260809 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 150.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 25.4 24.3 29.6 27.6 30.7 31.4 47.6 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 52.0 51.0 46.0 38.0 36.0 36.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 22.0 10.0 12.0 -2.0 N N N F VF F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%