Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260809 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 150.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 23.5 30.6 24.8 27.0 30.7 36.9 49.0 N N U N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 81.0 82.0 79.0 77.0 6.0 15.0 35.0 1.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 8.0 24.0 21.0 -13.0 -45.0-107.0 -39.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 38.0 36.0 43.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 6.0 6.0 28.0 -1.0 5.0 -2.0 -1.0 N N N VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 6.8% 4.0% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 4.5% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 10.6% 2.5% 6.5% 70kt / 48h 2.8% 0.7% 1.7% 65kt / 72h 2.9% 1.1% 2.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP142026 260809 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 150.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 23.5 30.6 24.8 27.0 30.7 36.9 49.0 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 38.0 36.0 43.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 6.0 6.0 28.0 -1.0 5.0 -2.0 -1.0 N N N VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%