Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260810 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.70 149.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 28.1 22.8 28.1 32.3 29.7 42.4 46.3 N N N N U N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 78.0 75.0 70.0 54.0 100.0 31.0 33.0 2.0 N N N N F U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 54.0 13.0 -5.0 -12.0 -14.0 -3.0 -31.0 U N U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 53.0 50.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 46.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 21.0 27.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 U U VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 5.5% 13.6% 9.5% 30kt / 24h 4.0% 4.9% 4.5% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 4.6% 3.5% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 4.6% 2.6% 45kt / 36h 4.3% 9.4% 6.8% 55kt / 36h 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 8.5% 3.4% 5.9% 70kt / 48h 2.0% 1.2% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 WP142026 260810 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.70 149.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 28.1 22.8 28.1 32.3 29.7 42.4 46.3 N N N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 53.0 50.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 46.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 21.0 27.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 F F VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%