Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.3  15.1  25.4  28.2  45.3  49.3  53.1  N  N  F  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  52.0   6.0  95.0  36.0   1.0  29.0   2.0  N  N  U  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   1.0 -28.0 -14.0 -62.0 -40.0   8.0  -7.0  U  U VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  49.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  19.0   4.0  -8.0   6.0  -5.0   2.0   0.0  U VU  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        5.5%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       26.7%       18.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%       13.7%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       13.7%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       13.7%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       17.0%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        5.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        4.4%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP142026 260810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.3  15.1  25.4  28.2  45.3  49.3  53.1  N  N  U  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  49.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  19.0   4.0  -8.0   6.0  -5.0   2.0   0.0  F VF  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%