Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.5  23.7  24.2  25.7  34.4  37.9  46.9  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0   4.0  94.0   7.0  24.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  U  F  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -18.0 -12.0 -19.0 -44.0 -41.0 -46.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  50.0  59.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  -2.0  -4.0   9.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   7.0 VU  N  F  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       10.8%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        4.4%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        4.4%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        6.3%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        1.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.3%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP142026 260810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.5  23.7  24.2  25.7  34.4  37.9  46.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  50.0  59.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  -2.0  -4.0   9.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   7.0 VF  N  U  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%