Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260811 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 143.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.5 32.8 27.3 26.4 36.4 37.2 42.7 37.5 N U N N U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 105.0 70.0 6.0 30.0 3.0 1.0 29.0 U F N U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -5.0 -43.0 -68.0 -48.0 18.0 -32.0 4.0 U U VU VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 60.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -2.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 3.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 1.4% 5.6% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 2.1% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 2.0% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP142026 260811 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 143.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.5 32.8 27.3 26.4 36.4 37.2 42.7 37.5 N F N N F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 60.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -2.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 3.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%