Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50    142.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  27.1  26.2  30.5  40.4  34.5  37.1  38.8  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0  68.0  18.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -43.0 -68.0 -44.0  -4.0  26.0  16.0  23.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  53.0  57.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   6.0  16.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP142026 260811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50    142.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  27.1  26.2  30.5  40.4  34.5  37.1  38.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  53.0  57.0  59.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   6.0  16.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%