Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142026 260811 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 140.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 28.5 28.2 34.5 38.1 39.3 28.4 32.9 N N N U U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 68.0 18.0 2.0 27.0 3.0 1.0 27.0 1.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -42.0 -39.0 -50.0 -47.0 -49.0 13.0 -20.0 -13.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 43.0 44.0 43.0 47.0 52.0 62.0 61.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 -4.0 -5.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 6.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP142026 260811 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 140.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 28.5 28.2 34.5 38.1 39.3 28.4 32.9 N N N F F F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 43.0 44.0 43.0 47.0 52.0 62.0 61.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 -4.0 -5.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 6.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%