Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.3  33.1  39.4  44.1  42.4  38.6  43.8  N  N  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  32.0   3.0  26.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -36.0 -40.0 -29.0 -62.0 -12.0  -2.0 -20.0  15.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  51.0  60.0  64.0  65.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -6.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP142026 260811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.3  33.1  39.4  44.1  42.4  38.6  43.8  N  N  F  F VF VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  51.0  60.0  64.0  65.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -6.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%