Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142026 260812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  37.6  46.1  42.8  44.9  40.3  45.3  39.5  N  U VU VU VU  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  27.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -73.0 -31.0  -1.0  27.0 -46.0 -25.0  12.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  47.0  50.0  56.0  67.0  65.0  63.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP142026 260812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  37.6  46.1  42.8  44.9  40.3  45.3  39.5  N  F VF VF VF  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  47.0  50.0  56.0  67.0  65.0  63.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%