Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152026 260810 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 160.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 26.5 30.7 27.4 35.7 29.4 31.2 29.5 N N U N U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 109.0 110.0 111.0 111.0 111.0 118.0 135.0 139.0 F F F F F F VF VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 35.0 7.0 0.0 -23.0 14.8 -11.8 16.0 N N U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 72.0 73.0 73.0 66.0 62.2 58.8 58.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 10.0 11.0 7.0 16.0 -2.0 -10.0 -9.0 VU U U N U N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.3% 9.3% 7.8% 25kt / 24h 27.3% 48.1% 37.7% 30kt / 24h 14.2% 28.2% 21.2% 35kt / 24h 12.1% 27.3% 19.7% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 21.9% 11.4% 45kt / 36h 17.7% 56.3% 37.0% 55kt / 36h 13.7% 34.9% 24.3% 55kt / 48h 44.7% 27.3% 36.0% 70kt / 48h 24.9% 23.3% 24.1% 65kt / 72h 49.6% 48.6% 49.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 WP152026 260810 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 160.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 26.5 30.7 27.4 35.7 29.4 31.2 29.5 N N N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 72.0 73.0 73.0 66.0 62.2 58.8 58.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 10.0 11.0 7.0 16.0 -2.0 -10.0 -9.0 VF F F N F N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%