Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152026 260810 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 160.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.8 28.5 26.5 27.5 35.1 46.6 46.1 41.2 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 115.0 119.0 123.0 128.0 136.0 140.0 140.0 144.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 7.0 0.0 14.0 26.0 -67.0 -26.0 5.0 N U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 70.0 69.0 64.0 57.0 55.0 49.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 8.0 -2.0 -6.0 -16.0 -32.0 -20.0 -11.0 N U N F VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.2% 7.0% 7.1% 25kt / 24h 25.5% 40.7% 33.1% 30kt / 24h 15.5% 22.2% 18.8% 35kt / 24h 11.5% 20.6% 16.1% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 17.7% 9.7% 45kt / 36h 17.9% 40.8% 29.4% 55kt / 36h 13.9% 19.9% 16.9% 55kt / 48h 40.5% 12.6% 26.5% 70kt / 48h 21.8% 10.1% 16.0% 65kt / 72h 36.1% 23.2% 29.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP152026 260810 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 160.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.8 28.5 26.5 27.5 35.1 46.6 46.1 41.2 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 70.0 69.0 64.0 57.0 55.0 49.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 8.0 -2.0 -6.0 -16.0 -32.0 -20.0 -11.0 N F N U VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%