Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152026 260810 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 160.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.3 34.6 40.4 40.1 32.3 35.2 26.9 29.1 U U U U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 108.0 108.0 105.0 103.0 102.0 106.0 122.0 138.0 F F F F F F F VF Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 19.0 0.0 30.0 -26.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 N U U N VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 67.0 65.0 62.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 56.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 22.0 33.0 34.0 -4.0 -8.0 -9.0 6.0 VU VU VU VU F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.7% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 3.2% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 13.5% 1.5% 7.5% 70kt / 48h 4.1% 0.5% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 41.3% 6.3% 23.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP152026 260810 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 160.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.3 34.6 40.4 40.1 32.3 35.2 26.9 29.1 F F F F N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 67.0 65.0 62.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 56.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 22.0 33.0 34.0 -4.0 -8.0 -9.0 6.0 VF VF VF VF U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%