Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152026 260811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    162.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  26.2  25.6  28.4  33.8  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 132.0 142.0 142.0 142.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   5.0  -8.0 -16.0   5.0 -30.0 -30.0 -30.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        8.5%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.4%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       11.0%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        2.6%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       43.7%        5.5%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.3%        3.1%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       60.1%       19.9%       40.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP152026 260811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    162.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  26.2  25.6  28.4  33.8  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%