Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152026 260811 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 161.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 30.7 35.6 41.2 45.4 46.8 46.8 46.8 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 114.0 111.0 109.0 107.0 106.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 -12.0 -28.0 -13.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 50.0 48.0 44.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 5.0 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.9% 2.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.4% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 11.5% 0.9% 6.2% 70kt / 48h 3.0% 0.4% 1.7% 65kt / 72h 19.7% 2.4% 11.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP152026 260811 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 161.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 30.7 35.6 41.2 45.4 46.8 46.8 46.8 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 50.0 48.0 44.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 5.0 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%