Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152026 260811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    158.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  35.0  39.3  41.5  34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  93.0  99.0 104.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 116.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   4.0  30.0  18.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  11.0  12.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.3%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%        2.2%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%        1.1%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       48.8%        7.2%       28.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP152026 260811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    158.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  35.0  39.3  41.5  34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  N  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  11.0  12.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%