Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152026 260812 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.70 158.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 39.9 40.7 40.4 49.1 57.1 56.9 78.6 U U VU U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 108.0 118.0 130.0 137.0 141.0 134.0 110.0 111.0 F F VF VF VF VF F F Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 0.0 -2.0 21.0 26.0 63.0 56.0 74.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 53.0 51.0 54.0 59.0 68.0 62.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 12.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 16.0 32.0 27.0 N U N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.7% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 4.0% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 19.9% 1.0% 10.4% 70kt / 48h 6.6% 0.5% 3.5% 65kt / 72h 25.9% 1.3% 13.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 WP152026 260812 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.70 158.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 39.9 40.7 40.4 49.1 57.1 56.9 78.6 N F VF F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 53.0 51.0 54.0 59.0 68.0 62.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 12.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 16.0 32.0 27.0 N F N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%