Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  25.6  31.6  27.2  38.2  40.7  46.7  46.9  N  N  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  51.0  64.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  39.0  -3.0  -8.0   1.0  10.0  25.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   7.0   9.0  10.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  12.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       14.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.0%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       12.4%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        4.2%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        3.7%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP162026 260812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  25.6  31.6  27.2  38.2  40.7  46.7  46.9  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   7.0   9.0  10.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  12.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%