Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  33.4  29.2  32.2  37.0  43.0  50.5  37.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  51.0  64.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  -3.0  -8.0  -5.0  22.0  16.0  38.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   9.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        7.4%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        5.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.8%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        2.0%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP162026 260812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  33.4  29.2  32.2  37.0  43.0  50.5  37.0  N  F  N  N  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   9.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   5.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%