Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162026 260813 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.80 149.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.1 41.2 40.6 44.7 47.1 51.3 49.9 55.8 U VU U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 124.0 129.0 130.0 130.0 129.0 124.0 121.0 124.0 F VF VF VF VF F F F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -3.0 14.0 -4.0 13.0 44.0 38.0 16.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 55.0 53.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -2.0 4.0 0.0 7.0 6.0 12.0 6.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 6.1% 11.1% 8.6% 30kt / 24h 2.6% 4.0% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 1.7% 3.3% 2.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 2.0% 8.5% 5.2% 55kt / 36h 1.0% 2.1% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 16.7% 2.3% 9.5% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 1.1% 3.0% 65kt / 72h 23.3% 3.3% 13.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP162026 260813 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.80 149.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.1 41.2 40.6 44.7 47.1 51.3 49.9 55.8 F VF F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 55.0 53.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 51.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -2.0 4.0 0.0 7.0 6.0 12.0 6.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%