Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  32.3  32.1  32.6  27.8  34.5  35.6  48.9  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  56.0  62.0  71.0  87.0  95.0  97.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0   3.0  28.0   7.0  14.0  -1.0   6.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   5.0   4.0   7.0  10.0   2.0  -7.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        1.4%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.5%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h       17.4%        3.4%       10.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 WP162026 260814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  32.3  32.1  32.6  27.8  34.5  35.6  48.9  F  N  N  F  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   5.0   4.0   7.0  10.0   2.0  -7.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%