Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    155.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.6  31.0  26.1  23.7  19.3  14.3  20.6  U  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  73.0  87.0  95.0 105.0 119.0 127.0 126.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   6.0   0.0   3.0   0.0 -23.0 -27.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  11.0  11.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.5%        3.2%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%        1.3%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       53.1%       16.6%       34.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP162026 260814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    155.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.6  31.0  26.1  23.7  19.3  14.3  20.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  11.0  11.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%