Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  28.9  23.8  22.4  19.0  17.7  15.3  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  96.0 101.0 106.0 121.0 128.0 130.0 129.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0 -21.0 -16.0 -21.0   4.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -6.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        9.7%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       41.2%        6.8%       24.0%
 70kt / 48h       22.7%        3.8%       13.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       36.4%       49.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP162026 260815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  28.9  23.8  22.4  19.0  17.7  15.3  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%