Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    158.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  26.3  24.8  26.4  24.8  21.0  17.8  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 110.0 119.0 127.0 134.0 138.0 138.0 139.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   2.0   2.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0   6.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        9.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        2.2%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h       46.2%        6.5%       26.3%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%        3.8%       14.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       39.9%       51.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP162026 260815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    158.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  26.3  24.8  26.4  24.8  21.0  17.8  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%