Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30    158.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  25.5  24.9  21.2  21.2  20.2  17.1  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 116.0 122.0 127.0 132.0 135.0 136.0 136.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   3.0  -5.0 -11.0   1.0   0.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       10.2%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       21.0%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%        6.2%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       46.9%       12.9%       29.9%
 70kt / 48h       26.7%        9.9%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       50.8%       56.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP162026 260815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30    158.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  25.5  24.9  21.2  21.2  20.2  17.1  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%