Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162026 260815 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 160.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 26.8 26.0 24.2 19.0 15.8 18.2 34.8 N N N N N F F U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 122.0 128.0 132.0 136.0 140.0 141.0 141.0 139.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -4.0 -16.0 -52.0 -30.0 -1.0 -19.0 10.0 U U U VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 56.0 U VU U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -4.0 -5.0 -2.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 0.0 N F F N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 9.1% 5.4% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 2.5% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 4.7% 19.6% 12.2% 55kt / 36h 4.7% 5.9% 5.3% 55kt / 48h 44.0% 13.0% 28.5% 70kt / 48h 26.4% 10.6% 18.5% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 49.9% 56.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP162026 260815 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 160.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 26.8 26.0 24.2 19.0 15.8 18.2 34.8 N N N N N U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 56.0 F VF F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -4.0 -5.0 -2.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 0.0 N U U N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%