Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    161.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  25.1  24.8  20.9  17.1  22.3  34.6  44.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  119.0 124.0 128.0 131.0 133.0 133.0 131.0 127.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -31.0 -53.0 -37.0  -9.0  -9.0  15.0  35.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  47.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   6.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       13.9%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       29.0%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.6%       10.9%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       45.4%       17.1%       31.3%
 70kt / 48h       26.5%       14.3%       20.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       37.3%       50.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 WP162026 260816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    161.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  25.1  24.8  20.9  17.1  22.3  34.6  44.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  47.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   6.0   8.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%