Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162026 260816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    162.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  24.8  16.6  17.8  21.8  28.6  50.7  58.2  N  N  F  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 124.0 127.0 130.0 132.0 130.0 122.0 118.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -34.0 -32.0 -26.0 -12.0   4.0  12.0  18.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  52.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -5.0  -9.0  -2.0  -3.0   5.0  16.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       12.6%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       23.5%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%        8.0%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       45.9%       11.7%       28.8%
 70kt / 48h       26.7%        9.3%       18.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.5%       16.1%       38.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 WP162026 260816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    162.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  24.8  16.6  17.8  21.8  28.6  50.7  58.2  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  52.0  55.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -5.0  -9.0  -2.0  -3.0   5.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%