Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.90    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  27.7  29.2  23.9  15.6  18.9  17.3  15.5  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  60.0  57.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  94.0 103.0 126.0 144.0 136.0 143.0 159.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -9.0  -9.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       22.2%       15.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        7.7%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        7.1%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%        6.6%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h       11.4%       39.1%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       16.1%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h       40.7%       28.7%       34.7%
 70kt / 48h       21.4%       24.9%       23.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       70.7%       66.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 WP172026 260818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.90    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  27.7  29.2  23.9  15.6  18.9  17.3  15.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -9.0  -9.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%