Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30    154.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  27.7  23.7  19.0  15.3  14.5  11.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  21.0  57.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  66.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  82.0 102.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       16.5%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.6%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.4%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       27.2%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        9.7%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       26.6%       19.8%       23.2%
 70kt / 48h       11.4%       13.9%       12.6%
 65kt / 72h       58.1%       56.0%       57.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP172026 260818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30    154.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  27.7  23.7  19.0  15.3  14.5  11.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%