Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.00    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  23.7  20.7  20.7  14.8  14.5  15.8  19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  12.0  61.0  64.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  78.0  76.0  73.0  83.0  98.0  72.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -8.0  -7.0 -19.0  -1.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.9%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       33.1%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       16.1%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       15.7%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       14.2%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.2%       45.8%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%       24.3%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       34.0%       33.5%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h       16.6%       27.3%       22.0%
 65kt / 72h       51.3%       61.0%       56.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP172026 260819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.00    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  23.7  20.7  20.7  14.8  14.5  15.8  19.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -8.0  -7.0 -19.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%