Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  21.3  19.1  22.3  12.1  11.4  12.1  13.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  53.0  45.0  12.0  96.0  84.0  90.0  77.0  N  N  N  U  F  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 100.0 124.0 138.0  88.0 126.0 109.0  84.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0 -10.0 -11.0  -4.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       13.9%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        4.8%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       19.8%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        6.1%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       47.3%       23.3%       35.3%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       13.3%       19.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       54.4%       58.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP172026 260819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  21.3  19.1  22.3  12.1  11.4  12.1  13.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0 -10.0 -11.0  -4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%