Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  17.8  14.6  13.0  14.5  13.4  13.5  16.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  20.0  19.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  74.0  83.0  83.0  93.0  90.0  97.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -11.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       18.1%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        7.2%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        7.2%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        7.2%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h       12.4%       22.6%       17.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%        7.4%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h       43.1%       22.9%       33.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       13.1%       18.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       45.5%       54.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 WP172026 260819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  17.8  14.6  13.0  14.5  13.4  13.5  16.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -11.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%